This is an account of a NYS National Guard earthquake drill in 2009 that was dreamed up by noted frackademic Robert Jacobi – before he became a frackademic at the Shale Shamstitute. Informative, in light of the fact that the DEC has gone out its way to downplay the probability of such a quake, even in areas that are heavily faulted. The DEC intentionally understates the extent of NYS faulting – including likely faults mapped by the geologist quoted in the article about the National Guard Exercise – in 2009 – the year of the first SGEIS draft. . .
The DEC won’t know where the faults are for sure – because it does not require any seismic tests to ID them
But they are there – all over CNY
“Account of where a hypothetical 5.9 earth quake struck near the City of Buffalo on October 30, 2009 at 2:00PM and the NYS National Guard responded from November 1-6 at the Spaulding Fiber Plant in Tonawanda, NY.
“According to Dr. Robert D. Jacobi, PhD, University of Buffalo professor of geology the likelihood of a significant seismic event occurring in…NY is not as remote as one would think.” “During the past 20 years, geological research that I have conducted with my colleagues at the University of Buffalo and other institutions, has led to an understanding that, contrary to the conventional wisdom, Western New York, in fact, the entire state, is crisscrossed by literally hundreds of faults,” he said. “many of them, including the largest in our area, the Clarandon-Lindon Fault, remain seismically active today.”
When asked about earthquakes in the area, Jacobi pulls out a computer-generated state map, cross-hatched with diagonal lines representing geological faults. The faults show that past earthquakes in the state were not random, and could occur again on the same fault systems, he said. “In Western New York, 6.5 magnitude earthquakes are possible,” he said.
Earthquakes up to 7 magnitude have occurred in the North Eastern part of the continent, and this scenario was calibrated on the magnitude 5.9 earthquake, which occurred in Saguenay, Quebec in 1988, said Jacobi and Professor Andre Filiatrault, MCEER director. He (Jacobi) and other earthquake experts impaneled by the Atomic Energy Control Board of Canada in 1997 found that there is a 40% chance of 6.5 magnitude earthquake occurring along the Clarendon-Lyndon the fault system, which lies about halfway between Buffalo and Rochester, Jacoby added.
Jacobi and Filiatrault said that the soft soil of Western New York, especially in part of downtown Buffalo, would amplify tremors, causing more damage. “It’s like jello in a bowl,” said Jacobi
Jacobi Called Exercise Vigilant Guard “important and Illuminating.”