Jerry Acton has modeled shale gas productivity in Pennsylvania and projected the likely outcome of drilling the extension of those formations into New York. Jerry presented this model at a forum held at Cornell on October 30th.
A narrated slide show of his work is on BrainShark, here. Click “reload” webpage if it does not load on first try. My overview of the 4 presentations is here.
Well worth a listen. The Oil & Gas industry’s behavior prior to the de facto moratorium on shale gas wells validates Jerry’s findings. They came, they tested and most of them left for browner pastures before the moratorium even went into effect, leaving hapless Norse Energy and Gastem to prove where the “fairway” goes rough. Likewise, the HVHF well permit applications on file with the DEC confirm Jerry’s predictions of productivity in a few townships hard by the borderline.
More to come soon in the same format and on related topics from Lou Allstadt, Brian Brock and Your Faithful Correspondent.
The green diamonds on the map below indicate where below average methane wells might be drilled in New York. The black diamonds indicate areas where shale gas is not likely to be productive under any gas price, since most wells would be dry holes. The model is validated by the geology, by the industry’s behavior towards New York prior to the moratorium, and by the HVHF well permit applications on file with the DEC. Nutshell: More hot air than gas in New York.
Fracksylvania gets fracked, New York gets dumped on. Sound like a plan ?